2023, Can China's import and export trade rebound in U-shape? Dec 23, 2022
First, will the economy be good next year?

Recently, in the 16,000-word report of the investment bank Goldman Sachs, it is estimated that the global economic growth rate will be only 1.8% in 2023, and the United States will barely avoid recession, while Europe and Britain will fall into recession. China's GDP growth rate will accelerate from 3.0% this year to 4.5% next year. It is predicted that the growth rate in the first half of the year will be significantly lower than the market expectation, and that in the second half of the year will be significantly higher than the market expectation.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts that the global merchandise trade volume will only increase by 3.5% in 2022, and will further decrease to 1.0% in 2023.

This year is really not easy. The epidemic situation is repeated, the supply chain is affected, and the emergence of the black swan of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has even affected the global economy. What's more, the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps raising interest rates to cope with inflation, resulting in a decrease in U.S. demand and a slowdown in investment, which also affects our foreign trade and exports to some extent.

Second, what should we do?

The focus of our foreign trade can be ASEAN and the belt and road initiative countries. Especially in 2023, which is the second year of RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement), we can make good use of this agreement. According to the report of the General Administration of Customs, we can see that more and more enterprises enjoy the benefits brought by RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement).

At the same time, foreign trade enterprises can consider the global localization of supply chain, and actively participate in the domestic economic cycle, and there are many opportunities. In this way, we can reduce the influence of geopolitical and economic turmoil, make enterprises more flexible, and enhance their anti-vulnerability ability.

Perhaps, we will still feel that the export is not as prosperous as before, but after the epidemic has passed its peak and the country has opened wider, especially after the conference in March next year, I believe that more import and export factors conducive to the economy and foreign trade will come out, and I believe that in 2023, China's import and export trade will rebound in a beautiful U-shaped way.

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